With twenty-two teams in the NBA “bubble” at the Walt Disney World Resort complex in central Florida, all remaining games will be played in one of several arenas on the campus. And with only players in attendance for the first eight tune-up games as well as the first round of the playoffs, no team will be offered any home-court advantage. Thus, what has been a cornerstone of pro sports will be notably absent. Packed and partisan arenas, rowdy spectators, and mascots - gone: every bit of it.
Teams like Milwakuee Bucks and the Los Angeles Lakers will obviously be missing an advantage that they were due as both teams rank at the top of their respective conferences. However, it seems that the Sixers will be most affected as they were seemingly invincible at home with a win percentage of 94% this season, whilst sporting an abysmal 29% win percentage on the road this year. Despite the unprecedented circumstances, some see a more pure environment with Detroit Pistons coach Dwayne Casey saying that
“This is going to be the neutral site effect that everybody’s wondered about, now you’ll all be on equal footing” - Casey
Regardless of the differing views on the current situation, the numbers reveal that of the four major American sports, home-court advantage is most meaningful in the NBA with teams consistently winning around 60% of their regular season games in their home arenas. What’s more, the effect of home-court advantage seems to intensify in the playoffs as numbers show that it is harder to win on the road in the postseason than it is on the road in the regular season; however, many would argue that the disparity can be explained by the fact that teams with better regular season records are given home-court advantage in the postseason. Yet, detailed statistics between 2003-2011 showed that compared to on the road, teams decreased their turnovers by 3.1%, increased scoring by 3.4%, increased by fast-break points by 12.7% and decreased fouls committed by 4.7% when playing at home.
The explanations for the large disparity in home and away numbers can generally be attributed to referee bias and the psychological impact of playing at home. Studies have shown that when the crowd is vocal, it impacts the way referees call a game. Between 2003-2011, referees called an average of 22.15 fouls on away teams and only 21.13 fouls on home teams per game. Additionally, the psychological impact of playing at home is undeniable as home-court advantage gives the home team an advantage simply because players believe that it does; however, the degree to which playing at home affects performance remains very difficult to determine. But the fact remains that if all twenty-two teams in the current NBA “bubble” were given the option to play “at home,” they would all take it. Regardless of how magnitudinous of an advantage playing at home provides, the empty arenas in Orlando will reduce the game to simply Xs and Os and pure basketball with nothing getting in the way of talent.
Data courtesy of Basketball Reference and ESPN