Few things have changed the landscape of the basketball world as drastically as the introduction of the three-point shot in 1980. Today, the game continues to evolve with streamlined line-ups filled with shorter and faster multi-dimensional players. Offenses have become increasingly focused on spacing, as players spread out along the perimeter and create opportunities for shots from either driving to the basket or dishing it out from the paint for perimeter shots.
The effect has been evident as three point shots surpassed free throws as the second most important scoring method in the league, and if this trend persists, by 2030, the three point shot will become the greatest source of points in the NBA. Two pointers have been directly impacted, as teams have redesigned their offense to spend more possessions on shooting triples. The change in the skillset and play style in today’s lineups has also contributed to the decline. While free throws have been indirectly impacted, as players shoot more threes they tend to attack the basket at a smaller frequency. And as a result of this, players are fouled less and shoot fewer free throws.
This offensive revolution has led to guards becoming the primary scorers on the floor. Basketball traditionally requires a combination of height and strength, typically a weakness of the guard positions; however, shooting threes reduces the need for these two traits. In this new era of pick and roll plays, isolation situations, and rules that have limited physicality on the perimeter, point guards have thrived. Despite the fact that minutes played by Small Forwards has remained constant because of their length and versatility on the defensive end, the Small Forward position, the leading position in the 1990s, now ranks dead-last among all five positions today in top twenty percentile scorers in 2018.
This fundamental change in the way the game of basketball is played at the highest level is likely to stay as the game becomes more data driven. The league has been forever changed and this new focus on positionless players with high skill sets will force teams to either adapt or be left behind.