NFL Fantasy Football Reaches and Sleepers

September 4, 2020
Football
Brandon Xu

One reach/sleeper at QB, RB, and WR. All average draft positions (ADP) from ESPN Fantasy Football.

Quarterbacks

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Reach: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (ADP: #10 QB)

Aaron Rodgers just wasn’t a great fantasy QB last year, finishing as QB #12 and posting 10 games under 15 points. Last year’s QB #12 going as QB #10 this year isn’t egregious, but the Packers did almost nothing to improve the talent around him. The one player who was supposed to help the Packers receiving core was Devin Funchess, but he opted out due to Covid-19 concerns. Their TE situation looks equally shaky this year with second-year player Jace Sternberger starting after redshirting his rookie season due to injuries. Rodgers isn’t getting any younger either, but he’s still getting picked over guys like Josh Allen, last year’s QB #7, who has much more offensive talent to work with. There are plenty of better QBs to invest your pick in this year than Rodgers.

Sleeper: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (ADP: #20 QB)

In 2019, Ryan Tannehill became the second QB since Joe Montana to average over 9 yards a throw and have a completion percentage above 70%. Although he only had 9 starts last year, replacing Marcus Mariota in week 7, he would’ve had 4,157 yards passing, 35 touchdowns, 181 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, and a 119.6 QB rating, which would have made him QB #2 last season behind Lamar Jackson. That’s not to say I think Tannehill will be QB #2 this season, but the second half of the Titan’s season was so incredible partly due to Tannehill’s brilliance. It’s fair to assume his numbers will regress a bit, but he should be going way higher than QB #20. The presence of Derrick Henry will make many fantasy owners skeptical of Tannehill, but he’s at worst a top 10-15 QB every week, and at best he’s a top 5 QB. It’s shocking that in a majority of ESPN fantasy leagues, he goes undrafted.

Running Backs

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Reach: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: #7 RB)

We know what running backs can do in Andy Reid’s offense. Over the years, he’s turned relatively pedestrian running backs like Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West into solid real life and fantasy football players. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is better than any running back on the Chief’s roster last year, and I think he’ll have a great season; however, he’s someone that has an elite ceiling but also a low floor. Given that he’s currently projected to go somewhere in the back half of the first round, there’s too much risk there to spend a premium pick on. I have no doubt that he’ll be a weekly top 5 RB over the second half of the season, but the reduced training camp because of Covid-19 and the presence of people already familiar with the Chiefs playbook like Darrell Williams and Darwin Thompson might make it harder for Edwards-Helaire to get a significant amount of touches at the start of the season. A first round pick needs to be spent on a player that can start all 16 games of the season, and I’m not sure Edwards-Helaire offers the consistency that warrants a first round pick.

Sleeper: David Johnson, Houston Texans (ADP: #17 RB)

David Johnson has almost become a meme for how poorly he’s performed over the past two years relative to preseason fantasy projections, but there are a few things different about this year. First off, David Johnson is likely the workhorse back on the Texans this year. The Texans do have Duke Johnson, but he is likely to be primarily a third down running back that might get a few carries here and there. Another thing that’s different about Johnson is that he’s no longer off the board within the first two rounds. He’s being taken in the middle of round 4, which is lower than what I think he should go considering players like Miles Sanders and Chris Carson are going ahead of him, both of which aren’t guaranteed workhorse backs on their respective teams. David Johnson is a solid RB2 this year and he’s a great pickup at the top of the 4th round.

Wide Receiver

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Reach: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (ADP #17)

I think Tyler Lockett will be a solid fantasy player this year, but he was too inconsistent last year to be worth an early 4th round pick. Lockett had 5 games where he finished with less than 10 points last year. In addition, the Seahawks just re-signed Josh Gordon and DK Metcalf is preparing for a sophomore breakout season. I think there’s too much risk to warrant this early of a pick for Lockett especially when players who are unquestioned number 1 receivers on their team like AJ Brown and Keenan Allen are going later than Lockett. I would rather invest in those players than Lockett.

Sleeper: Marvin Jones Jr, Detroit Lions (ADP #35)

Marvin Jones is a solid yet unspectacular player that should be going higher than round 9. He’s the #2 receiver on what should be a resurgent Lions offense. In the 8 games he played with Stafford, he finished as WR #14, which is a lot higher than the #35 spot he’s currently going at. Assuming Stafford stays healthy, Jones is likely to get 5-8 targets per game, which is more than enough to make him a productive flex or second wide receiver.

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