New City, New Logo, New Quarterback… Same old Chargers: Why Anthony Lynn’s Playcalling is Responsible for the Chargers 1-4 record

Few teams have been as unlucky as the Chargers over the past few decades. An organization seemingly filled with talent on both sides of the ball every year who always finds themselves underachieving. Somehow, an eight time Pro Bowl quarterback with Hall of Fame numbers ended his career as a bolt with more kids than playoff wins. Their inability to meet expectations has had multiple sources: missed field goals, injuries to starters, and one score losses, as they finished 2-9 in one score games in 2019, worst in the league. Those problems are once again appearing this season, with a missed field goal and extra point costing them a victory in Week 5, stars Derwin James and Austin Ekeler being placed on IR, and the team’s four losses all coming in one score games. But this year is different. While luck continues to plague this team in its new city, there is a much larger issue, and it’s Anthony Lynn.

Before diving into the analysis, here’s a quick recap of the Chargers season thus far. With Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, they got extremely lucky to come out victorious Week 1 in a 16-13 slugfest against the Bengals. After Taylor had his ribs punctured by their own team doctor, rookie Justin Herbert took over. He lost an overtime thriller to the reigning Super Bowl Champions, a disappointing game against the Panthers, a shootout against the Buccaneers, and another overtime loss to the Saints, all games within seven points and all games where the Chargers led at some point.

For starters, Justin Herbert has been phenomenal, both from the eye test and the numbers. He is making history almost every week. He is the first player in NFL history with a rush and pass TD in the first half of their debut game since 1954, the third player in NFL history to pass for more than 300 yards and have a rushing touchdown in their debut, and the youngest player to throw for 4 touchdowns on Monday Night Football. He is fourth in completion percentage over expected, first in money throws, and sixth in true passer rating over his four starts. His elite passing has been THE reason they have had leads against three Super Bowl contending teams. The problem is the team’s conservative play-calling once obtaining the lead, taking the ball out of his hand and turning a dynamic offense into a predictable, inefficient one.

It’s well documented that passing is, in general, better than running. The following graph shows data from the full 2019 season involving expected points added (EPA) per attempt for each down.

While teams tend to run more when ahead, the Chargers have run an abnormal amount this season, ranked third to last in the league in neutral situation pass rate (includes first and second down when win probability is between 25% and 75%), indicating the team’s high rush percentage is not just because they are winning. Furthermore, using win probability added (WPA) according to Vegas’s live win probability throughout the game, we can see a significant discrepancy between the team’s passes and rushes, and these discrepancies in win probability only grow as the game goes on. The graph below shows WPA by quarter for passing and rushing, excluding week 1 when Taylor was the quarterback.

Yet, the Chargers play calling, which is already conservative, becomes even more conservative as they develop a lead. The next graph shows how often the team passes in each quarter when leading and when trailing. 

I get why teams run more when ahead, and almost every team does it, but when doing so as early as the second quarter, it allows opposing teams to get back in games because running is clearly not as productive. This applies even more when your quarterback is lighting the other team up, and is why the Chargers blew huge leads against the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Saints. I get the Chargers wanting to protect their rookie quarterback, but if they want to win games, Anthony Lynn needs to put the ball in Justin Herbert’s hands.