Preface: Andrelton Simmons has some more years to give before he’ll retire. For all I know, Simmons could be a guaranteed, first ballot Hall of Famer by the time he retires. But right now, Simmons isn’t a Hall of Famer in most people’s eyes, which is why I think it warrants an article.
Drawbacks
Let’s begin by exploring the reasons that hold back Simmons from Hall of Fame contention. The most glaring hole in Simmons’ resume is his lack of an All-Star Game. Since its inception in 1933, every single player who has made it into the Hall of Fame has made at the bare minimum one ASG. Simmons has zero. Voters will very likely knock him down a few pegs due to his lack of an All Star berth, even though much of this is to the fault of viewers who fail to see the defensive impact Simmons brings to the field. Public perception continues to derail Simmons’ hopes of being inducted into the Hall of Fame especially when it comes to voting, as most people probably view him as a boring, mediocre position player on a failing Angels team. On top of that, Simmons only has one top ten MVP finish, which is also not ideal in a Hall of Fame scenario. In short, Simmons does not have Hall of Fame accolades, but many of these “issues” can be rebuked because of his play style.
Why he is a Hall of Famer
The obvious reason for Andrelton Simmons: he is easily the best defensive player of our generation. On a base level, Simmons accrued at least 19 defensive runs saved (DRS) in each of his first 7 seasons. His 5 dWAR season in 2017 is the third greatest defensive season of all time (according to Baseball Reference) and he also has two other seasons in which his single season dWAR was a top 20 dWAR season of all time. This has allowed Simmons to be already up to 14th in ALL TIME defensive WAR, and assuming he has 6-7 good to great defensive years left in him, he could very much finish 1st or 2nd ever in this statistic. Again, this is first or second in ALL TIME defensive wins above replacement. Another completely absurd Simmons’ stat is that his 112.3 UZR since 2012 is over 30 points above 2nd place (Jason Heyward). The gap between Simmons and Heyward is equivalent to the difference between Heyward and 15th place UZR holder Kole Calhoun. No matter how you shape it, Simmons is the best defensive player the game has seen since Ozzie Smith, and possibly the best defensive player the game has ever seen.
When it comes to the offensive side of the ball, it may seem that Simmons’ numbers are far away from Hall of Fame contention, but when compared to some other Hall of Fame or future Hall of Fame shortstops, it is apparent that they really aren’t. Such players include Ozzie Smith, Luis Aparicio and possible Hall of Famer Omar Vizquel. For a baseline, here are these three’s career offensive lines compared to Simmons:
Simmons: .270/.317/.380 91 wRC+
Smith: .262/.337/.328 90 wRC+
Aparicio: .262/.311/.343 83 wRC+
Vizquel: .272/.336/.352 83 wRC+
Simmons currently has the highest wRC+ and OPS amongst the four, which although is still subject to change considering he’s still playing, should be an indicator that offensive numbers don’t mean everything for a defensively-demanding position like shortstop. Not that it really matters in his case, but Simmons is also a historically good avoider of strikeouts with a career 9.0 K%, below Fangraphs’ “excellent” threshold of K% (10%). Still, his lackluster raw offensive numbers hold him back in the average viewer’s eyes, as it is tough to see him finishing above 100 career HRs and 2000 career hits.
Ozzie’s case is so interesting when compared to Simmons because there is definitely an argument that Simmons will finish with a better career. However, because Ozzie had more hits and steals, 15 All Star appearances, and a ring, he is likely to be forever seen as the better player and more deserving Hall of Famer.
In the end, it is possible that Simmons’ lack of accolades and underwhelming base offensive numbers will leave him known for being the greatest defensive player of all time, being held back from greatness because of his poor offensive numbers. But, I strongly believe that if Simmons has 6-7 more productive years, he could definitely be a strong contender for the hall.
It will also be interesting to see which team he would go in with, but my assumption is the Angels over the Braves or whatever team(s) he may venture off to in the future
Data courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference