The 2021 offseason has been agonizingly slow so far, though it was somewhat expected given the circumstances. Despite that, there were still a flurry of big time trades and signings that are worth recapping. This article will also take a jab at predicting where some of the biggest available names will be playing next year.
Assessing the Blockbusters
White Sox receive: SP Lance Lynn
Rangers receive: SP Dane Dunning, P Avery Weems
White Sox side: This is a beautiful job by White Sox GM Rick Hahn to see an opportunity and take it. The Indians are certain to take a dip this year and the Twins seem like they may lose a substantial amount of value, so this is the opportune time for the White Sox to make a run at the division. Their biggest need by far was SP and Lynn was among the best available. He is the definition of an innings eater, having pitched 175+ innings in 6 of the past 8 seasons (excluding 2020). Lynn serves as a perfect #2 starter and could even be seen as a lowend #1. The fit between him and the White Sox is immaculate. Rating: 9.5/10
Rangers side: Texas might’ve gotten more at the 2019 or 2020 deadlines for Lynn, but all in all, Dunning is fine value to get for Lynn. He was pretty solid across seven 2020 starts, posting a 3.97 ERA and matching that nearly exactly with a 3.99 FIP. He was a little old for a rookie (25), but seems pretty seasoned already despite his lack of big league experience. Dunning doesn’t possess a ton of upside, but it seems like he’ll be a solid middle of the rotation guy. He did undergo Tommy John in 2019, but this seems largely behind him. I can’t say much about Weems but reports have him as a potential big league reliever some day. Rating: 7/10
Padres receive: SP Blake Snell
Rays receive: C/OF Francisco Mejia, C Blake Hunt, SP Luis Patiño, P Cole Wilcox
Padres side: I won’t say that this trade was necessarily bad for the Padres, but I really don’t think it was as good as some others may say. Snell was obviously elite in his 2018 Cy Young Campaign, but other than that he has been relatively average for most of his big league career. Stamina is a concern with him, averaging just a tad over five innings per start in his career, and this just doesn’t say #1 starter to me. He won’t be asked to be a #1 in San Diego, but they gave up a heavy amount of value for him. I applaud the Padres for taking the initiative to win now, but am not in love with this move for them. Rating: 6.5/10
Rays side: This is perhaps the trade that most epitomizes the Rays organization. They once again cut payroll and in the process bring back four guys who could all be high impact players. I don’t think Snell’s early hook in Game 6 of the WS had much to do with this rather than the Rays' ploy to never pay a player. However, they did pretty well in the return. Mejia was the #1 catching prospect for a while but has flopped so far in the bigs, so a change of scenery will bode well for him to develop into a decent big leaguer. Hunt is already a strong defensive catcher with a phenomenal arm, and given his frame, the bat could definitely develop. Patiño is the prize of this trade, and is a borderline top 10 prospect throughout baseball. Considering the Rays player development, he could definitely be contending for a Cy Young within a few years. Wilcox has pretty good raw stuff, but still has a while to go. Rating: 6.5/10
Padres receive: SP Yu Darvish, C Victor Caratini
Cubs receive: SP Zach Davies, SS Reginald Preciado, OF Owen Caissie, OF Ismael Mena, SS Yeison Santana
Padres side: It’s usually pretty hard to call an objective winner to a trade before all the prospects have developed, but this is one of those odd trades where you can already deem one. When Darvish is on his game, he is arguably a top five pitcher and he has been on his game since the 2019 All Star break, ending as the runner up Cy Young winner. The Padres now have four guys who could pass as #1 starters in the league (Snell, Darvish, Dinelson Lamet, and Mike Clevinger). Chris Paddack still has a high ceiling and top prospect MacKenzie Gore should be ready soon, which opens up the possibility of them employing a six man rotation that would be absolutely lethal. Caratani could also start at catcher in a lot of places and will make a fun duo with Austin Nola. Rating: 10/10
Cubs side: This trade is just sad for the Cubs. Trading Darvish makes sense to cut payroll, but I refuse to believe that there wasn’t a better offer out there. Davies is maybe the most average starter in the entire league and is just a placeholder. They were unable to receive a single one of the Padres’ top 10 prospects which is terrible considering what they gave up. Sure, the four prospects they got are all very young and were in the Padres’ top 20, but they are all still wildcards at the moment. It’s certainly possible one or even multiple of these prospects boom, but that’s just playing the lottery at this point. Rating: 2/10
Mets receive: SS Francisco Lindor, SP Carlos Carrasco
Indians receive: SS Amed Rosario, INF Andres Gimenez, P Josh Wolf, OF Isaiah Greene
Mets side: This is an absolutely tremendous move for the Mets. Lindor is objectively a top five SS and top 10-20 position player, no matter if you’re low or high on him. He has produced at least four fWAR in all of his big league seasons, and even his down 2020 had him on a 4.5 fWAR pace. He is the exact type of charismatic superstar you need to compete with the best. The Mets already have a tremendous core of position players and with Lindor, may be top three in that respect. The only downside to the trade is the possibility of losing Michael Conforto. Carrasco has one of the best stories in all of sports, and his 2020 proved that he is still capable of providing elite numbers. The Mets were able to fill two needs with one trade, and are finally ready to make a run at the World Series. Rating 8.5/10 (if they don’t resign Lindor), 10/10 (if they resign Lindor)
Indians side: The Indians will receive much warranted slander for trading Lindor, but honestly the return was not half bad. Rosario has passed as the Mets’ starting SS for the past three years, and has shown flashes at times. The bat will never be there, but he is a great athlete and an above average defender at short. At just 25 years old, there is still upside for him. Gimenez is probably the biggest piece that Cleveland got and actually has a similar skillset to Lindor. He is already an elite defender at a premium position and if everything goes right, could be an above average hitter. There is a pretty safe floor for him and the ceiling is also pretty high. Gimenez could certainly be a consistent 3.0+ fWAR player on a yearly basis. Obviously, Rosario and Gimenez can’t both play short, and with Gimenez being both younger and already the better defender, I would guess that he will be the SS while Rosario moves to the outfield to showcase his speed. Wolf and Greene are both unknowns at the moment, but there is upside for both. Rating: 7.5/10
Other Relevant Trades and Signings
Nationals acquire 1B/DH Josh Bell, OF/DH Kyle Schwarber
Outside of Juan Soto and Trea Turner, the Nationals offense was abysmal in 2020. So, both of these guys will be welcome additions. Bell is possibly the worst defender in baseball, but if the universal DH is maintained and he solely has to hit, he will provide value. Schwarber is a pretty polarizing player, but he can certainly produce runs and is capable of providing competent outfield defense. Both were good moves for the Nats.
Braves sign SP Charlie Morton
This could be Morton’s last year and this is the perfect team for him to ride into the horizon with. The Braves find much needed veteran stability in their rotation and Morton gets a good chance to win his 2nd ring.
White Sox sign RP Liam Hendriks, OF Adam Eaton
The White Sox continue to boost their pitching staff, adding one of the 5 best relievers in baseball. Hendriks was unbelievable in 2019 and was even better in the shortened 2020. 18 million per year is a lot for a reliever, but Hendriks might be worth it. Overall, a high risk high reward move for the Sox. Eaton is back with the White Sox and will be their everyday right fielder. There is not a more boring player in any sport, but he is fine as an everyday corner outfielder.
Mets sign RP Trevor May, C James McCann
May is nothing special, but he’ll get the job done as a middle inning reliever. Much needed stability for their bullpen. McCann is several levels down from JT Realmuto, but is still an alright everyday catcher. At the very least, he is a step up from Wilson Ramos.
Padres sign UTIL Ha-Seong Kim
Coming over from the KBO, Kim signed a pretty team friendly contract with San Diego. He has been a consistent 20/20 player in the KBO, but I can’t say much beyond that. He obviously won’t overtake Fernando Tatis Jr. at short but could split time with Jake Cronenworth at second and even see time in the outfield. Low risk, high reward for the Padres.
Angels trade for RP Raisel Iglesias, SS Jose Iglesias
The Angels have struggled to find a consistent closer for years, so here’s hoping that’ll change. Raisel isn’t elite, but has been consistently decent for a couple of years. Jose Iglesias will presumably start at SS, and although he is an incredibly uninspiring player, he’ll provide stability.
Dodgers acquire RPs Tommy Kahnle and Corey Knebel
These two come with injury concerns, but have both been incredible at points in their career. As long as the Dodgers continue to make smart moves like these, they’ll continue to be at the top of the league.
Tigers sign OF Robbie Grossman, Royals sign 1B/DH Carlos Santana
These aren’t league altering signings, but are signings that rebuilding teams should be looking to make. Both got 2 year deals and will have the opportunity to prove themselves with their new teams hoping to flip them at some point for good to great prospects.
Predictions on the 5 biggest free agents
SP Trevor Bauer: Bauer is really playing out his free agency through his social media, and it’s kind of tiring at this point. Yes, he was incredible in 2020, but has only been elite for one other season. He is far from an ace and nowhere near worth his 36 million dollar asking price.
Prediction: Dodgers
C JT Realmuto: We haven’t heard much about Realmuto so far, but it seems like his asking price is a little over what teams might be willing to pay him. Paying big for catchers is always risky, but Realmuto is one of the best to hit the market in awhile.
Prediction: Phillies
OF George Springer: The Mets almost make too much sense for Springer. He wants to contend, and New York is in a spot to do so. Signing Springer would mean Michael Conforto will be gone after this season, but Springer is definitely a better player than Conforto and will probably make the Mets a top three team on paper.
Prediction: Mets
INF DJ LeMahieu: LeMahieu is reportedly “impatient” with the Yankees, and seems likely to sign elsewhere. It’s hard to consider him a superstar, but he is still a very good player and will certainly change the dynamic of any team that signs him. I really love the fit in Toronto for LeMahieu.
Prediction: Blue Jays
OF/DH Marcell Ozuna: Ozuna had his best season in 2020, which might bump his asking price above what he’s actually worth. He is one of the best pure run producers in the league and will provide value wherever he goes. I liked the Nationals fit but with Bell and Schwarber now there, it’s hard to see them bringing in another DH type player.
Prediction: Braves