MVP
AL: Cleveland Indians 3B José Ramírez
The fourth best player in baseball since 2017 (according to Fangraphs’ WAR), Ramirez’s 2020 campaign was nothing short of incredible. He started off the season scorching hot, posting a 1.244 OPS in eight July games. Though he fell back down to Earth in August, Ramirez returned to his July self as the race for the Central division tightened, posting an eye popping 1.294 OPS in September. Two months (technically) of a 1.200+ OPS was enough for Ramirez to lead the fWAR category for all position players and pitchers. It is fair to question whether the Indians would have made the playoffs without him, as Ramirez’s 163 wRC+ was 51 points above the Indians’ wRC+ runner up (Franmil Reyes / 112 wRC+). The obvious short on Ramirez’s 2020 was the disappointing August, but I believe his other months should be enough to earn him his first MVP.
Here are Ramirez’s AL ranks among qualified players:
fWAR: 3.4 (1st)
HRs: 17 (t-3rd)
SBs: 10 (3rd)
OPS: .993 (t-2nd)
wRC+: 163 (5th)
Runner Up: Los Angeles Angels OF Mike Trout
NL: Atlanta Braves 1B Freddie Freeman
Freeman had a monster year at the plate, finishing with a ridiculous .456 wOBA and 187 wRC+ compared to Mookie Betts’ .390 wOBA and 149 wRC+. Both players play for extremely talented teams, and while Freeman outperformed everyone on his team offensively, Betts was arguably outperformed by his teammate Corey Seager offensively as Seager finished with a higher wOBA and wRC+ than Betts did (.394 and 151 respectively). Freeman also finished second in OPS (1.102), first in Runs Created (65), first in Runs Scored (51), and third in RBIs (53). Although Betts did contribute more than Freeman in other aspects of the game, namely on defense and baserunning, Freeman still finished with the higher fWAR of 3.4, a league best, showing just how good Freeman was offensively this season. The 11-year veteran looks in line to finally take home his first MVP award.
Runner Up: Los Angeles Dodgers OF Mookie Betts
Cy Young
AL: Cleveland Indians SP Shane Bieber
Ramirez was not the only Indians’ player who had a historic 2020, and it is possible that Bieber’s 2020 was even more historic. Bieber’s 14.20 K/9, 1.63 ERA, 2.07 FIP, and 3.2 fWAR were all first for qualified pitchers in both the AL and NL. Even though it is a largely irrelevant stat, his eight wins also topped the league. If Bieber’s K/9 was scaled up to a full season (30 starts), he would have posted 305 strikeouts, an astounding seventh most in a single season since the start of the century. He did it all with a fairly sustainable .267 BABIP as well, proving that his season was far from a fluke. A scary truth is that despite MLB’s lack of a most improved player award, Bieber could have easily won the award despite already posting a 5.6 fWAR season in 2019. There really isn’t a close second for this award, and Bieber should realistically be the first unanimous winner since 2014.
Runner Up: Minnesota Twins SP Kenta Maeda
NL: Cincinnati Reds SP Trevor Bauer
In an extremely close NL Cy Young race, Bauer is the pitcher who has Conor McGregor-strutted his way to the top. Bauer leads NL pitchers in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.795), is second in Ks and K/9 (100, 12.3), and is third in fWAR (2.5), all while having one less start than both Jacob deGrom and Yu Darvish, the two other contenders. The biggest knock on Bauer is that he has gotten extremely lucky this season as he finished with the second lowest BABIP (.215), but his xERA, 2.17, was not much higher than his ERA, meaning that Bauer still pitched extremely well as an individual and thus rejecting the idea that luck carried him through the season. His impact on the Reds’ postseason appearance was undeniable as well, posting two complete game shutouts in the 11 starts that he had. Pitching for a team with one of the worst offenses in the MLB (3rd lowest runs/game at 4.05), Bauer’s two complete game shutouts and overall performance this year can arguably be the reason why the Reds made the postseason. When it comes to this year’s NL Cy Young winner, “I don’t see how you can see it any other way.” - Trevor Bauer
Runner Up: Chicago Cubs SP Yu Darvish
Rookie of the Year
AL: Seattle Mariners OF Kyle Lewis
Going into the 2020 season, Luis Robert looked to be the favorite to win this award, but that prediction has been shattered with Kyle Lewis emerging as the clear favorite to win AL ROY. Amongst qualified rookies (186 plate appearances), Lewis has the highest fWAR (1.7), wRC+ (126), wOBA (.349), and OPS (.801). Robert was somewhat better defensively and on the base paths, but that shouldn’t be enough to push him past Lewis. There isn’t much else to say here. Expect Lewis to run away with this award.
Runner Up: Chicago White Sox OF Luis Robert
NL: Milwaukee Brewers RP Devin Williams
A non-closer reliever winning the ROY would be quite the revelation, but Williams’ just posted one of the best 22 game samples I’ve ever seen by anyone. Fueled by a nearly unhittable changeup, he posted a 17.67 K/9 (meaning he struck out more than half of the hitters he faced), tying himself for first among pitchers with at least 20 innings. His ERA and FIP were both under one and hitters hit just .089 against him. He has become the posterboy for why front offices fiend for spin rate. His changeup was thrown 53.7% of the time and hitters hit .018(!!!) against it. While there is something to say about positional value between Williams as a reliever and say Jake Cronenworth or Alec Bohm as everyday position players, I think Cronenworth and Bohm’s good but not great stats just don’t line up to Williams’ historical stats.
Runner Up: San Diego Padres 2B Jake Cronenworth
Comeback Player of the Year
AL: Cleveland Indians SP Carlos Carrasco
After being diagnosed with leukemia in 2019, Carrasco was given the AL Comeback Player of the Year in 2019. Though he deserved it for his hard fought battle with cancer, his numbers that season don’t quite reflect that of an improved player. That has completely changed in 2020, as Carrasco has put up some of the best numbers of his career this season, which is why we believe he deserves the award in back to back seasons. In his 12 starts this year, he has put up a career low 2.91 ERA, is fifth in strikeouts and 12th in K/9 amongst AL pitchers, helping the Cleveland Indians reach the postseason once again. Carrasco’s feel-good story and spectacular performance this season should grant him his second Comeback Player of the Year award.
Runner Up: Los Angeles Angels SP Dylan Bundy
NL: San Diego Padres OF Wil Myers
Myers has had one of the most weirdest career developments, peaking at #3 on MLB’s top 100 prospect list and also winning the 2013 AL ROY. Unfortunately, this rookie year was probably his best year until 2020, existing as a somewhat serviceable everyday player and more often than not a poor defending platoon player for much of his career. Even so, he consistently posted a 107+ wRC+ and a 760+ OPS. from 2015-2018. His decline in 2019 was an all time low, as he finished the season with a mere 96 wRC+ and .739 OPS. In 2020 though, Myers came storming back with career highs in OPS (.959) and wRC+ (154). He was largely the catalyst for the Padres inspiring playoff run, leading the team in wRC+, even with Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the team. It’s unlikely that Myers continues this level of production into 2021, or even just sustaining it over a full season, but his career outlook is much better now than it was at the beginning of the year.
Runner Up: San Diego Padres 3B Manny Machado
Data courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference