The abbreviated 2020 MLB season may be over just as quickly as it began because of COVID complications. But while it’s still here for us to enjoy, let’s go over some quick takeaways that I’ve observed through the ~10 games that each team has played thus far.
Thoughts on Rule Changes
30 man roster: Though the 30 man roster was implemented with the intent to prevent traffic between the minors and majors in the shortened season, the expanded roster has also created opportunities for over 100 players to play in the big leagues and rosters to be far more flexible. It would be interesting to see the 30 man roster in effect in a full 162 game season.
Extra Innings (runner on 2nd): As part of Rob Manfred’s pace of play initiative, the runner on 2nd rule was implemented to speed up the ending of the game. This rule is weird because it seems like the MLB is encouraging less baseball to be played. This is a rule that is hopefully one and done.
Universal DH: To me, it was always weird that there was a DH in one league and not the other. Thankfully, the league finally established the universal DH which allows for more offense. The universal DH is hopefully here to stay.
3 batter minimum: Watching games so far this year, the 3 batter minimum hasn’t really seemed to hurt pitchers that much. Sure LOOGIES are seemingly extinct and the platoon advantage is more present, but there really is no other effect. I am indifferent to this rule and wouldn’t mind if it stayed or went.
Bronx Bombers have arrived
Teaming up the 2017 NL MVP with the 2017 AL MVP runner-up was supposed to create one of the most formidable power hitting duos in MLB history. However, both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have struggled with injuries over the course of the last two seasons, missing a combined 258 games over 2018-2019. This season though, the duo has come healthy and ready to play, already showcasing the tremendous exit velos and distances they’re known for. If the two manage to stay healthy in a regular 162 game season, they may very well chase Mantle and Maris’ 115 combined homerun record from 1961.
Pitching Injuries
The 2020 season is only two weeks old, yet there are enough pitching injuries to fit a whole season. Noah Syndergaard, Chris Sale, and Luis Severino were all lost to Tommy John before the season. During the season, Justin Verlander has had forearm issues, Mike Soroka popped his achilles, and Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Marcus Stroman, Ken Giles, Tommy Kahnle and Roberto Osuna have all had injury scares. Though injuries are always concerning, the more notable ones here are Soroka, Verlander, and Osuna who are all likely done for the year.
If any team was hit hard by the slew of injuries to their pitchers, it’s probably the Braves. The Braves rotation was already questionable coming into the year, and the loss of Cole Hamels in the preseason and Soraka to boot puts their rotation in serious danger. They are now forced to rely on unproven arms like Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Wright, and Bryse Wilson, leaving Max Fried as the only solid option they have when it comes to playoff time. This simply isn’t enough to make them legitimate World Series contenders and considering the shortened season, many rebuildings teams may be hesitant to part with their starters. In terms of Osuna and Verlander, the Astros now have 11(!) pitchers on their 30 man who have less than 27 big league innings. Just based off the fire power of their offense, they are still contenders, but the pitching staff definitely needs to be addressed.
Mariners’ young guns
It has been a long, miserable 19 years since Seattle has seen their team in a playoff baseball game, but their cast of young, talented players may bring that drought to an end very soon. Although the team hasn’t been great this year, there have been some extremely promising performances from the likes of Kyle Lewis and JP Crawford. Lewis has been electric throughout his career in the big leagues, posting a 154 wRC+ and .941 OPS in 29 games. Though he isn’t a tremendous defender and has a really bad K/BB ratio, his potential to produce some runs for the team is an exciting prospect in and of itself. Alternatively, JP Crawford, a project that fell short in Philadelphia, has managed to somewhat rejuvenate his career in Seattle through his phenomenal defensive upside and swinging a solid bat. Crawford has a 159 wRC+ in 11 games so far, but it’s difficult to say he’ll be able to maintain this production considering he ended with a 86 wRC+ last season. Still, Crawford’s defense at a prime position in addition to an optimistic possibility of a 90-96 wRC+ season will make him a valuable asset for the Mariners in the years to come. And once Lewis, Crawford, and Evan White are joined together with other elite prospects like Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby, there is no telling what the ceiling of this Mariners’ team could be.
Shane Bieber
There really aren’t words that can describe Shane Bieber’s start to 2020. Through his first two starts he owns a 0.00 ERA, a NEGATIVE FIP and had 27 strikeouts over 14 innings. His ERA finally went up to 0.83 after giving up two home runs to the Reds on Tuesday. Over these three starts, Bieber owns a 14.54 K/9 and 1.52 FIP and has already been worth 1 fWAR. Bieber has begun to throw a slider, a “tight” curve (emulating a slider), and a “big” curve which all look the same coming out of the hand. When you mix these 3 offspeed pitches with his already impressive command, lively fastball, and changeup, there really isn’t much you can do as a hitter. The scary truth is that Bieber’s “big” curve might be the best curve in all of baseball and his “tight” curve might be the 2nd best curve in all of baseball. He is putting up historic whiff rates and at just 25 years old, we may be looking at the beginning of a hall of fame career.
Who can take down the powerhouses?
Coming into the season, the Yankees and Dodgers were the obvious front runners to win the World Series, and have showcased it so far. It would be a healthy bet to take these two against the rest of the field (the other 28 teams). On the off chance they have a bad series, though, which of the other 28 teams has the best chance to take these two down? I believe the Minnesota Twins have the best shot at knocking down these powerhouses. If the Twins match anywhere near the same level of production as their rank number three 2019 offense this year, they can only be looking to set more offensive records for themselves after replacing CJ Cron with Josh Donaldson. Their pitching staff is also upgraded in terms of both talent and experience by poaching Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers. Having pitched for years with LA, these two will know how to pitch to their hitters and when added to Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios, gives the Twins the best rotation they’ve had in years. Sure, Minnesota is historically known to struggle against the Yankees, but the Evil Empire has never seen an offense like the 2020 Twins. If Minnesota stays healthy over a full season, they absolutely have the firepower to hang with the top of the top.
Early Playoff Seeding Predictions
AL
1. Yankees
2. Twins
3. Athletics
4. Astros
5. Rays
6. Indians
7. White Sox
8. Angels
NL
1. Dodgers
2. Cubs
3. Phillies
4. Braves
5. Cardinals
6. Padres
7. Nationals
8. Rockies