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Los Angeles Dodgers: Julio Urías
The long time Dodger prospect had a solid showing in 2019 posting a 2.49 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 85 strikeouts in 79.2 innings pitched. This wasn’t just a fluke either - his 3.09 xERA, which ranked in the top 7% of the league, and 3.43 FIP tells enough about Urias for anyone to know that he’s a talented pitcher. Urías’ fastball averages at 95.1 mph with a 2512 rpm spin rate placing him in the 94th percentile for fastball spin rate as well as an effective curveball, which had a 2743 rpm putting him in the 81st percentile for curveball spin rate, but what sets him apart is his ability to prevent hitters from squaring up the ball. Last year, Urías had the lowest average exit velocity against in the majors, at 83.2 mph, and the lowest hard hit percentage against, at 24.9%. He also had a barrel percentage-against of 4.3% and a .324 xSLG and .267 xWOBA against, all ranking in the top 10%. With the loss of starting pitchers Hyun-jin Ryu and Rich Hill to free agency, Urías is set to get plenty of outings as the 4th starter in the Dodgers rotation and with his ridiculous ability to prevent opposing hitters from inducing solid contact, he could finally have the all-star caliber season that the Dodgers have been waiting for since 2012.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Carson Kelly
Originally drafted as a third baseman by the Cardinals, Kelly was asked to make the transition to catcher because of his early career struggles at the plate. A year after Kelly made the transition, he was awarded the minor league Rawlings Gold Glove for catchers, which quickly boosted him onto most top 100 prospects lists and the 2nd best catching prospect in baseball. He was still awful at the plate in his 3 major league stints with the Cardinals from 2016-2018, but his defensive value allowed him to be the centerpiece in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals. Kelly had a mini breakout in 2019, where he posted a slashline of .245/.348/.478 and complemented it with a slightly above average defensive season. Catcher is arguably the weakest offensive position right now and Kelly’s 108 wRC+ was well above average and his 18 HRs also tied him for 9th amongst catchers. Kelly was dominant against left handed pitching, posting a 1.128 OPS but struggled against righties with a .708 OPS. It is to be seen if these platoon numbers continue, but his below average OPS against righties can be made up for by his all-star caliber glove. Kelly also exhibited plus plate discipline in 2019, posting a 13.8 BB% (2nd amongst catchers, min. 350 PAs), which is promising for his future offensive outlook. Not important to this article, but Kelly led all major leaguers with 7 9th innings home runs in 2019. Framing is as important as it has ever been today and Kelly’s 88th percentile framing when added on to his historically strong arm classifies him as a strong defender. If Kelly can continue his offensive breakout and combine it with his typically good defense, he should widely be seen as a top ~7 catcher after this season.
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon
The Rockies second baseman had a very under the radar 20-plus homer season, slashing .250/.329/.450 with 24 homers in 539 PAs. McMahon boasts an exit velocity and hard hit percentage in the top 10% of the MLB, 91.4 mph and 47.7% respectively that were nearly identical at home compared to on the road, explaining his homerun totals. However, what keeps McMahon away from being an elite power hitter are his high ground ball rate of 50.8% and high strikeout rate of 29.7%. A few tweaks in McMahon’s swing that lead to a lower ground ball rate and more balls being put in the air will be the key to a 30-35+ homer and a 120+ wRC+ breakout season for McMahon.
San Francisco Giants: Tyler Rogers
Rogers may just be the next extremely successful, late-blooming submarine reliever in the big league, e.g. Darren O’Day and Pat Neshek, after a very promising 17.2 big league innings in 2019. It was a small sample size, but Rogers posted a 1.02 ERA and a 2.08 FIP along with a 1.53 BB/9 and 8.15 K/9. He did this while not giving up a single home run, an impressive feat for any reliever. As is typical for submariners, he relies heavily on his sinker, which has resulted in a 69.4 GB%, over 25% higher than the league average. His GB% in minors hovered at 61% as well, indicating that Rogers’ ability to produce a lot of ground balls is most likely his calling card. Any area of concern for Rogers derives from his previously high walk percentage that could come back to haunt him once he starts pitching more innings. The Giants bullpen is one of the worst in the bigs, and they will definitely want to see what they have in Rogers. If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground and his walk issues don’t resurface, Rogers could likely end the season as the Giants closer and find success not only this year but throughout the rest of his entire big league career despite debuting at 28 years old.
San Diego Padres: Dinelson Lamet
Lamet had a decent showing in 2019, putting up a solid 4.07 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 73 innings. He has solid spin on his fastball and curveball, 80th and 78th percentile respectively, and a sinker that averaged at 96.3 mph. Where Lamet really shines is in the advanced metrics. With a 3.34 xFIP and a whopping 33.5% strikeout rate, Lamet expresses his individual prowess on the mound despite his small sample size. To break out into a solid pitcher, though, Lamet needs to focus on his high flyball rate, which was at 36.3% last season. Although elite pitchers like Max Schezer and Jose Berrios had higher flyball rates of 38.1% and 37.4% respectively, they also both also had low HR/FB rates at 11.6% and 12.0% placing them at 13th and 15th in the MLB for lowest HR/FB rate. On the other hand, Lamet had an extremely high HR/FB rate of 19.7%, which, if he had qualified, would have put him in 6th for highest HR/FB rate, indicating that it is crucial for Lamet to decrease his flyball rate if he wants to limit the damage done by hitters. Playing in the extremely pitcher friendly Petco Park, Lamet is in a prime position as the Padres number two starter to have a strong showing in 2020 and possibly come near 200 strikeouts this season.
Data courtesy of Baseball Savant, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference