Breakout Candidates for Each MLB Team in 2020 (NL East)

Philadelphia Phillies: Adam Haseley

Haseley may be a tough sell to list as a potential breakout due to his lack of any elite skills, but he does a lot of things and a lot of things on an average level to become a solid outfielder for the Phillies. Haseley was given his big league opportunity following McCutchen’s ACL injury in 2019, in which he produced an underwhelming .266/.324/.396 slashline with a 88 wRC+. His K% and BB% were even worse his rookie year despite his decent performance in the minors, but it is difficult to judge a player who hits for the average in a rookie year they were rushed into. Fortunately for Philly fans, Haseley still has some upside in his defense, where he may put up some solid defensive numbers in center for the Phillies. He has the ability to run at an above average level, that, although not lightning fast, should allow him to track down balls and extend a single to a double every now and then. In a relatively weak Phillies outfield, Haseley should play 120+ games this year and if you combine his above average defense with an average wRC+ and some base running production, a ~3.0 fWAR season is definitely possible.

Washington Nationals: Wander Suero

While Suero had a rather forgettable 2019 season on the surface with a 4.54 ERA and nine losses as a reliever, some of his advanced metrics should make him an exciting player for Nationals fans to keep an eye on. Here’s a list of some of his more impressive ones: Suero posted a 3.07 FIP that put him in the realm of elite relievers like Josh Hader and Roberto Osuna, his cutter (thrown 72% of the time) sits in the 96th percentile for spin rate, and his changeup allowed just a .123 SLG against in 2019, partially responsible for his ability to limit the long ball (only five in 71 innings). Suero does have some minor issues with his control and easy-to-hit curveball, but if he continues to develop or chooses to drop the curveball entirely, Suero will become an elite reliever. With enough luck on his side and some control on his pitches, Suero will become a big part of the most recent World Series winners.

Atlanta Braves: Max Fried

Overshadowed by the brilliance of rookie all-star pitcher Mike Soroka, Fried had a strong rookie campaign going 17-6 with a 4.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 173 Ks in 165.2 innings of work. Although holding a 17-6 in a season and being listed as a potential breakout might be a bit ironic, Fried is placed on the list solely because of the sky-high ceiling he possesses. His xERA, 3.86, FIP, 3.72, and xFIP, 3.32, tells fans all they need to know about the young pitcher’s potential, a lot of which is tied to the limitations he places on hitters. Fried’s deadly curveball with a spin rate in the 91st percentile allows him to limit the damage of opposing hitters by missing barrels (4% barrel percentage), getting ground balls (53.6% GB), and striking hitters out with a 24.6% strikeout rate. If Fried continues to improve on his pitching and gets a little bit luckier than last year, he could potentially be looking at an all-star appearance in the near future.

Miami Marlins: Elieser Hernandez

Hernandez is an easily forgotten piece in a Marlins system that features a plethora of promising right handers, but he is fully capable of becoming the team’s fourth or fifth starter next season. Although Hernandez didn’t really experience the big leagues too much in 2019, he dominated AAA New Orleans,, posting a 1.13 ERA and 12.94 K/9, two ridiculous numbers for any pitcher. An almost 10% increase in slider usage helped Hernandez out, boosting his K% and displaying his capability to cater towards his strength and develop as a pitcher. 

The most pressing issue stunting Hernandez’s growth is his tendency to leave pitches over the middle when he is behind in the count, leaving his subpar fastball extremely easy to hit. He’s also never topped 130 innings in a pro season either, so his durability is definitely a question mark if he is to become a consistent starter for the Marlins. However, Hernandez’s ability to prevent hard contact (92nd percentile) added onto a dramatic increase in his K% leads one to believe that there is definitely upside for him going into 2020.

New York Mets: J.D. Davis

Davis had a strong 2019 campaign hitting .307/.369/.527 with 22 homers in 453 PAs while splitting time with Dominic Smith in the left field. With offensive numbers close to some of the best in the game, Davis presents a case for a bright future. His .374 wOBA and a 136 wRC+ were nearly identical to AL MVP candidate Marcus Semien’s .373 wOBA and 137 wRC+, and his high exit velocity, 91.4 mph, and hard-hit percentage, 47.7%, puts him in the top 10% of the league’s hitters. His expected values of a .543 xSLG and .383 xwOBA, both in the top 9% of the league, should give Mets fans even more hope, as he presents tremendous upside for an even better season. In addition, Davis has shown tremendous improvement as a hitter since his first year in the bigs in 2017, decreasing his strikeout rate from 29.4% to 21.4% and increasing his launch angle 9.9 degrees from 0.7 to 10.6. Although Davis may be a somewhat worse defender than Smith, -4.7 UZR and -3.7 UZR respectively, Davis’ ability to hit for power and average should give him the edge over the hit or miss power of Smith in left. Fangraphs Steamer projects Davis to hit 21 homers with a .332 wOBA and a 109 wRC+., but with his high exit velocity and gradually increasing launch angle, he could very likely be looking at 30+ homers and much higher wOBA and wRC+ numbers at the end of 2020.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Savant, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference