Breakout Candidates for Each MLB Team in 2020 (NL Central)

This is the 2nd division in the National League that we are covering. One final breakouts article is being releasing next week!

Cincinnati Reds: Lucas Sims

‍While a pitcher who posted a 4.60 ERA, 4.45 FIP, and 4.57 xFIP in 43 innings of work in the preceding season might be a longshot to be a breakout, Sims’ upside is too enticing to not place on this list. The reason? Sims’ fastball and offspeed pitches post some of the best spin rates in the league. His deadly curveball has a 3120 rpm, good for 3rd best in the MLB, a 30.5% whiff rate, and a .181 opposing wOBA,  and his even deadlier slider, good for the 6th best spin rate at 3004 rpm, has a 55.2% whiff rate, and a 41.5% putaway percentage. His fastball’s 2641 rpm is extremely impressive as well, but its low velocity (93.5 mph) and Sim’s heavy reliance on it, 50.1%, contribute to the .403 wOBA that opposing hitters have off Sim’s fastball.

Learning from Astros’ All-Star reliever Ryan Pressly could help Sims a lot, as his low FIP, 2.66, among relief pitchers comes from throwing his curveball and slider at a rate of 35.2% and 29% respectively. By relying on his elite offspeed pitches more, Sims’ fastball will become more effective as the dramatic change in velocity will throw off hitters and create the illusion that his fastball becomes faster than it really is. Other than that, Sims faced a couple of major issues with a high walk rate of 10.7% and HR/9 at 1.67, the latter being less of a concern if he learns to rely on his offspeed pitches more often. If Sims is able to make this adjustment, hit his spots more consistently, and perhaps find some more luck in the upcoming season, he could find himself taking over a job in the weak backend of the Reds rotation or playing a major role in the Reds bullpen.‍

St. Louis Cardinals: Dylan Carlson

‍The Cardinal’s top prospect had a strong 2019 season between Double-A and Triple-A with a .914 OPS, 24 homeruns, and 20 stolen bases in 562 PAs. While the Cardinal’s outfield is quite crowded, the switch-hitter should see him edging out the likes of Tyler O'Neill, Lane Thomas, and Harrison Bader for a spot in the upcoming year. None of the other three players have shown as much promise at the plate as Carlson, with Fangraphs Steamer projecting him to provide the most value at the plate with the highest wOBA (.314) and wRC+ (95) among the three. Carlson may start the season in Triple-A, but if he is able to continue his production at the plate it is only a matter of time before he will be starting in the Cardinal’s outfield and be a favorite for the Rookie of the Year award. ‍

Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller

‍Though Keller appeared to have an extremely disappointing 2019 season as the Pirate’s prized prospect, the 7.13 ERA he posted over his 11 big league starts is misleading when compared to his advanced metrics. Keller was rather unlucky with a lackluster defense behind him, posting a 3.19 FIP and 3.47 xFIP and a .475 BABIP, which when compared to a league-average at .300 paints a different story about his high ERA. When he’s on his A game, though, Keller is a spectacular pitcher. He’s shown flashes of brilliance such as a 6IP 1ER 9K performance against the Reds and a 5IP 1ER 7K performance against the Cubs. Along with his three 55 grade pitches, a high strikeout rate, ability to limit hard contact, Keller’s opportunity to continue pitching on a rebuilding Pirates team should carry him to a breakout season, possibly paralleling the jump that White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito made last year.

Milwaukee Brewers: Keston Hiura

‍After the Brewers took the UC Irvine product 9th overall in the 2017 draft, Hiura took just two years to land himself a starting job at second for the Brewers, having himself a  stellar rookie campaign with a .303/.368/.570 slashline and 19 homers in just 348 PAs. Hiura proved himself to be an elite hitter that season, headlined by a 139 wRC+ that would have tied with slugger J.D. Martinez for 16th in the Majors if Hiura had met the qualifying amount of plate appearances. Additionally, he ranked in the top 10% of the league in exit velocity, 91.4 mph, barrel percentage, 13.9%, wOBA, .388, and hard-hit percentage, 50%, numbers that indicate a bright future for Hiura. 

However, Hiura has a couple of major flaws that inhibit his success from meeting his potential. Namely, his strikeout rate of 30.7% is a big red flag for efficiency and pressure on the bases - but if his 23.1% strikeout rate during spring training is any indication of increased plate discipline, Hiura should see a raise in his offensive numbers in tandem with his team’s success. Hiura is also a poor defender, posting a -8.2 UZR and -5 DRS, but this may have been because of his lack of experience at second as he remained strictly a DH his junior year of college due to an elbow injury. Now, with the help of major league coaches and more time on the field, Hiura should become a better fielder and more comfortable at second. Given a full season, the Brewers second baseman will most likely hit 30+ homers and drive in plenty of runs considering his impressive advanced metrics and could very well be an all-star caliber player at the break.‍

Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ‍

‍The switch hitting outfielder displayed his exceptional power last season slugging .564 with 19 XBH, 11 of them being homers, in just 156 PAs. Happ’s power is attributed to his 13.7% barrel percentage, which ranks 15th among qualified hitters, a 89.3 mph average exit velocity (tied with AL MVP runner-up and trash can enthusiast Alex Bregman), and a near optimal 15.5 degree launch angle. One area of concern, however, is Happ’s historically high strikeout rate, which has been in the highest 4% for 2 out of Happ’s 3 seasons in the bigs. Happ did show signs of improvement in 2019 by lowering his strikeout rate down to 25.0% (down 11.1%), but he still has a long way to go if he is to raise his value as a hitter. With Happ projected as the current starting centerfielder for the Cubs, he will receive a fair amount of PAs, and his advanced metrics show that with his increased volume at the plate means he’s in line to have a breakout 20+ homer season in 2020.

Data courtesy of Baseball Savant, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference