Breakout Candidates for Each MLB Team in 2020 (AL West)

Seattle Mariners: Justin Dunn

‍A key component of the trade that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets, Dunn has the raw stuff to be a #3 or even a #2 in any big league rotation. Dunn carries a  fastball that sits at 94-97 MPH to go with a 55 grade slider that resulted in him leading the Texas League in strikeouts for the 2019 season. He’s also started to develop a dominant changeup, which would bode well in his development as a starter, and even more so if he were to become a 1 inning reliever. What makes Dunn’s future particularly promising is that he has strong strikeout numbers while rarely giving up the long ball, two desirable strengths for high leverage relievers. The main issue with Dunn is his command, which has been a concern since his Boston College days. However, as Dunn continues to develop and mature as a pitcher, he should be able to place his pitches more accurately. Any concerns over his durability have been shed as well, as he has pitched 130+ innings over the last three seasons. With plenty of opportunities on a rebuilding Mariners team, Dunn’s 3 50+ grade pitches along with his strong strikeout numbers should be enough to stick him as a starter, if not another dominant closer. 

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker

‍In his 2019 Triple-A campaign, Tucker placed himself in the 30-30 club with 34 homers and 30 stolen bases to go with a .909 OPS in 534 PAs, putting his deadly combination of power and speed on display. Tucker continued to capitalize on the same skills during his short MLB stint in September, ending the season with a .269/.319/.537 slashline as well as 4 homeruns and 5 SBs in just 72 PAs. A lot of Tucker’s power comes from his 92.0 mph average exit velocity paired with a close to optimal 16.3 average launch angle and a 48.9 hard hit percentage, advanced stats that indicate the possibility of scary homerun numbers next year. One major issue with Tucker, however, is his high strikeout rate. Tucker struckout at a rate of 21.7% in Triple-A, a number that rose to 27.8% once he got to the majors, and a lot of his value to the Astros hinges on his ability to bring those numbers down. Still, he should be the starting right fielder for the Astros and is projected with 20 homeruns and 14 SBs by Fangraphs Steamer along with a .325 wOBA and 105 wRC+, which should only improve as he brings his strikeout numbers down. 

Los Angeles Angels: Patrick Sandoval

‍Sandoval has really impressed in the Angels system since he was acquired from the Astros at the 2018 trade deadline. Across his 9 AA starts in 2018-2019 he posted 59 strikeouts across 39.2 innings, held opponents to a 5.9 H/9, and allowed just 1 homerun which is no easy feat. Largely due to inflated offensive numbers across all of AAA, Sandoval struggled to find success at AAA Salt Lake in 2019. Regardless, Sandoval made his big league debut because of the Angels’ rotation problems and unsurprisingly, floundered in the bigs. Sandoval posted a 4.59 FIP and 4.35 BB/9 across his starts, but despite the below average numbers, Angels fans should be excited by the potential Sandoval flashed. Namely, Sandoval possesses an elite changeup that had a 24.9% SwgStrk%, .043 ISO, and a .196 OAVG, all stats that were top 6 amongst changeups after his callup. Sandoval’s fastball velo is average to slightly above average at 93-96 MPH, but he has had struggles commanding the pitch, and the pitch is extremely straight (3rd percentile spin rate) so it leaves him little margin for error when he misses in the zone. He also throws a curveball that has shown a lot of potential, as he gets great vertical break on the pitch. With better command, which Sandoval needs to develop across all his offerings, the pitch could become another elite offspeed offering in his arsenal. He also doesn’t give up home runs much, which speaks to his elite off-speed stuff and tendency to not miss over the middle of the plate. Sandoval will be working with Mickey Callaway this season who former Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber attributed a lot of his success too, and because Sandoval’s pure stuff is so good, there is a good chance that working with Callaway will help him take the next step. The Angels rotation is once again a question mark going into the season, giving Sandoval plenty of chances to throw that nasty changeup and experience a lot of success if he gets a grip on his control.

Texas Rangers: Demarcus Evans

‍At 6’5’’, 295 pounds, Evans is a little known reliever in the Rangers system who employs a power fastball that regularly reaches 99 with an elite spin rate. Evans had a ridiculous 2019 campaign, where he struck out 100 in just 60 innings while allowing a .119 OAVG between A Down East and AA Frisco. And it isn’t just one season where he’s dominated - his K/9 sat at 16.55 in 2018 and 13.96 in 2017 (14.34 in 2019), to go along with a .149 and .195 OAVG, respectively, in those years. Evans has been elite and consistent in the minors up to this point in his career, and is becoming a safe pick to become really, really good. With a rare placement as reliever in the top 30 prospects for the Ranger and current closer Jose Leclerc struggling to hit his spots, Evans should be expecting a call-up to the bigs very soon. 

Oakland Athletics: Sean Murphy

‍Murphy is universally seen as the 3rd best catching prospect in the business, and for good reason - he started a playoff game, as a rookie, purely based on the organization’s confidence in his base skills. His debut season showed a strong upside for the young catcher,  owning a .245/.333/.566! slash line while also going yard 4 times in his 20 games. His raw skills include a 70 grade arm, a 55 grade field, a 55 grade hit tool, and a 60 grade raw power. While Murphy’s strong arm and his above average fielding grade should already be enough to excite fans, because good defensive catchers seem to never die, the offensive tools Murphy owns should make them doubly so. After he hit 10 HRs in 31 games in AAA Vegas, Murphy was given an opportunity in the bigs, where he excelled across 20 games. The biggest question mark about Murphy is his durability, as he has struggled with injuries, especially to his knees, which isn’t optimal for a catcher. Murphy’s K and BB% typically sit above average which shows that he is already pretty polished as a hitter, so even if his power never improves, he should still be able to maintain a 105-110 wRC+. The A’s have had catching problems ever since Stephen Vogt peaked, and they are hoping that Murphy can hold down the fort for the next 7-8 years. As long as he stays healthy, his gold glove caliber defense added on to his raw power should lead to a successful rookie campaign that builds the organization’s confidence in their future catcher. 

Data courtesy of Baseball Savant, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference