Breakout Candidates for Each MLB Team in 2020 (AL Central)

Detroit Tigers: Victor Reyes

‍Victor Reyes might not blossom into a superstar next year, but his talents should help him become a very solid outfielder. Reyes caught the attention of baseball fans in the latter half of 2019, in which he owned a .313/.340/.446 slash line and a solid 105 wRC+. While the surface level numbers were impressive, his advanced metrics deterred many from calling him a quality hitter because of a well below average 4.8 BB% and an unsustainable .399 BABIP. His power potential is also severely limited because he ranks below average when it comes to barrel%, launch angle, exit velo, and hard hit%. But still, Reyes has some potential upside with regards to his speed and defense, ranking in the 91st percentile for sprint speed. While he wasn’t anything to write home about with a +1 DRS in 2019, Reyes’ speed and arm strength should help him improve greatly as a defender even if he struggles offensively. Reyes will be competing for the leadoff spot on a poor Tigers team, and if he continues to hit for average and develop his defensive skill set, he should produce enough to mask his lack of power and walks. 

Chicago White Sox: Dylan Cease

‍Coming into 2019 as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Cease did not impress after posting a disappointing 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 73 innings as a starter. Fortunately for Sox fans, Cease is only 24 years old, meaning he has plenty of time to capitalize on his impressive arm. Owning a powerful fastball that averages at 96.5 mph, Cease lands in the 92nd percentile for fastball velocity to go with a 2449 rpm, 87th percentile for fastball spin. Those numbers should usually set a pitcher up for some success, but batters put up a whopping .454 wOBA off his fastball. And while his 5.19 FIP in comparison to his 4.42 xFIP does suggest that Cease was not the luckiest pitcher in the league, both numbers were well below average and well below expectations. One cause of this issue may have been Cease’s heavy reliance on his fastball, throwing it 47.4% of the time and allowing batters to adjust quickly to his best pitch. Another issue for Cease was his high walk rate of 10.7%, which would have been the highest 4th among qualifying pitchers. If Cease is able to get better results off his fastball and bring down his walk rate, he should be in line to have a breakout season in 2020.

Kansas City Royals: Ryan McBroom

‍It’s hard to pick a breakout candidate for a team that lacks any memorable prospects, but the most likely candidate is McBroom for the upcoming season. McBroom developed nicely as a hitter throughout 2019, raising his offensive numbers across the board. In 482 AAA PAs, McBroom hit 26 homers, an 11 homer increase from the year before, and had a OPS of .976, more than a 150 point increase from 2018. During Spring Training this year, McBroom had an OPS of 1.026 in 38 PAs as well, that, although a rather small sample size, gives glimpses of consistent improvement from McBroom. If McBroom continues to build off his hitting numbers in 2019, he will likely win the starting job at first base over Ryan O’Hearn, who is coming off a terrible 2019, and be one of the few positives for the Royals in 2020. ‍

Cleveland Indians: Oscar Mercado

‍Mercado should be projected to be one of the most valuable defensive outfielders due to his ability to close in on fly balls with his elite sprint speed (97th percentile). He was instrumental in the Indians wild card run last year as the team struggled to find production from the likes of Leonys Martin and Greg Allen in center. Mercado provided a 1.7 fWAR/2.5rWAR season for the Indians in his 115 games following his call-up, slashing .269/.318/443 while providing above average defensive and base running value. The biggest concern surrounding Mercado is that his uninspiring slash line was somewhat of an overperformance and that he may never be even an average hitter. For Mercado to improve offensively or simply match his 2019 results, the BB% needs to increase and the K% needs to come down. With elite sprint speed, Mercado’s steals number should increase this year, and if he maintains his power, a 20-20 season is definitely in the realm of possibilities. However, for Mercado to maximize his value, the defense needs to go from good to elite, and the Indians need to send him on the base paths more. The Tribe will go into this year with a lot of question marks in the outfield, but there is definitely hope that Mercado takes the jump into an above average everyday center fielder. ‍

Minnesota Twins: Devin Smeltzer

‍Smeltzer showed a lot of upside in his brief big league stint in 2019 with a 3.86 ERA in 49 innings, contrasting a lot of other prospects by relying on his control rather than a power fastball. His fastball sits at a below average 89-92 MPH and his changeup, curveball, and developing slider aren’t pitches with high spin rates - so instead, Smeltzer excels by throwing a lot of strikes and preventing the long ball, owning a 6% BB rate in 2019 and allowing a HR on just 13.6% of fly balls (League Avg: 7.7% and 9.5% respectively). Although his minor league strikeout numbers didn’t really translate into his MLB stint, his stellar command of his offspeed pitches allowed him to put up a couple strikeouts despite questionable velocity. It’s likely that Smeltzer will serve as a long reliever over being a starter, which, considering that he doesn’t lose the platoon edge (.753 OPS to RHB vs. .869 OPS to LHB), might be advantageous for the Twins. Especially with the newly implemented 3 batter minimum, being proficient against the opposite hand will be important for pitchers, something Smeltzer is already pretty good at. The Twins have a lot of injury and suspension questions surrounding the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation meaning that Smeltzer should get enough opportunities to decide whether he slots in as a starter or a reliever next year, but his ability to command his offspeed pitches and not give up free passes should make for a successful 2020 no matter the role he plays on the pitching staff.

Data courtesy of Baseball Savant, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference